Gun Ownership
Last week the National Opinion Research Center released its biennial update to the General Social Survey. This showed an increase to 34% of U.S. households owning guns in 2012, up from 32% in 2010 (sample size: 2,000 face-to-face and telephone interviews conducted from March to September, 2012). Despite this short-term upturn (too small to be statistically significant), a key trend that was picked up in reporting by The New York Times was the long-term decline in household gun ownership rates over the 40-year history of the survey. Ownership in the 1970s averaged 50%, according to the GSS, declining to 36% from 2000-2009.
Gallup Research has studied gun ownership even longer, going back to 1959, but has studied the issue more sporadically (twice in the 1960s, twice in the 1970s, four times in the 1980s, annually since 1999). Its research shows only a modest decline, from 44% for the 1970s through 1990s to 41% in the first decade of the 2000s and 42% since 2010. Pew Research only began reporting on gun ownership in 2004.
If we examine 4 recent surveys of gun ownership, Gallup is the outlier, reporting 43% ownership compared to 33-35% for the other surveys.
Gallup is the outlier despite the fact that two of the other questions are more expansive than Gallup’s: the NORC asks if the gun is in the home “or garage” (for those living in houses), while Pew asks about “guns, rifles or pistols”. While Republicans are more likely to own guns than Democrats (according to the General Social Survey, 50% of Republicans own guns vs. just 22% of Democrats), and Gallup last year had a Republican house effect of 2.5 points, that would adjust Gallup’s estimate only down to 42%.
While anecdotal evidence has suggested an increase in the size of the gun collections of gun owners since President Obama was elected, no national survey reports on the number of guns owned per household. If the trend is true, it may be that more existing gun owners are acquiring additional guns rather than new households becoming gun owners.
Averaging the interpolated estimates of Gallup and the GSS, and Pew where available…
…produces the following trend:
Results for years since Pew Research has been surveying:
Gun ownership levels reset themselves during the Clinton Administration, declining from 47% in 1993 to 35% in 1999, before bouncing back to a plateau of 36-39% since.
If these averages better represent reality, then the change was more abrupt than gradual, and the decline in U.S. gun ownership appears to have ended.
Historical Data
| Year | Weighted Average | Gallup | NORC | Pew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 45% | 40% | 49% | |
| 1984 | 46% | 42% | 49% | |
| 1985 | 46% | 44% | 48% | |
| 1986 | 47% | 45% | 48% | |
| 1987 | 47% | 46% | 49% | |
| 1988 | 45% | 46% | 43% | |
| 1989 | 48% | 47% | 49% | |
| 1990 | 46% | 47% | 46% | |
| 1991 | 45% | 47% | 44% | |
| 1992 | 46% | 48% | 45% | |
| 1993 | 47% | 49% | 46% | |
| 1994 | 45% | 47% | 44% | |
| 1995 | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| 1996 | 42% | 41% | 43% | |
| 1997 | 41% | 42% | 40% | |
| 1998 | 37% | 39% | 37% | |
| 1999 | 35% | 35% | 36% | |
| 2000 | 37% | 41% | 34% | |
| 2001 | 37% | 40% | 35% | |
| 2002 | 38% | 41% | 36% | |
| 2003 | 39% | 43% | 37% | |
| 2004 | 38% | 38% | 37% | 38% |
| 2005 | 38% | 40% | 36% | 36% |
| 2006 | 38% | 43% | 35% | 33% |
| 2007 | 38% | 42% | 35% | 37% |
| 2008 | 38% | 42% | 36% | 35% |
| 2009 | 36% | 40% | 34% | 33% |
| 2010 | 35% | 39% | 32% | 33% |
| 2011 | 38% | 45% | 33% | 37% |
| 2012 | 38% | 43% | 34% | 35% |